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AustralianMortgage Market Outlook – July 2026

Stability Returns After June Rate Hold

The RBA’s unanimous decision on 16 June to keep rates on hold provided some welcome relief for mortgage holders. After three rate increases earlier in 2026, the Board noted that financial conditions had tightened and the economy was slowing as expected. However, inflation remains above target, so the RBA will continue to monitor data closely ahead of the next meeting in August.

 

This pause in tightening allowed variable mortgage rates to stabilise for most borrowers. Lenders maintained competitive pressure, which helped keep new loan rates from rising further in the short term. Refinancing activity increased modestly as homeowners reviewed their options in search of better deals.

 

Sydney Market Trends

In Greater Sydney, the housing market continued to moderate through June. While some premium suburbs held firm, many areas in South and South West Sydney (including Sutherland Shire, Georges River, Liverpool, Fairfield, and Campbelltown) saw more balanced conditions.

 

  • Dwelling values were relatively flat to slightly softer in some pockets.
  • Buyer demand remained present but more price-sensitive.
  • Properties with good access to transport, schools, and amenities continued to attract strong interest from families and first home buyers.
  • Investor activity was selective, focusing on locations with long-term growth potential rather than short-term speculation.

 

The combination of higher borrowing costs and increased supply in some segments has created more realistic pricing, which can benefit well-prepared buyers in our local area.

 

What This Means for You in South & South West Sydney

July offers a good opportunity to take stock of your current mortgage or explore new opportunities. With rates on hold (at least for now), it’s an ideal time to:

 

  • Review your loan for potential refinancing savings.
  • Assess your borrowing power for a first home or next investment.
  • Lock in a competitive rate before any future policy shifts.

 

At First State Homeloans, we specialise in helping clients across Southern Sydney navigate these conditions with clear, independent advice tailored to your personal situation.

 

Looking Ahead

While June brought stability, the market remains sensitive to inflation data and global events. The RBA’s next decision in August will be closely watched. In the meantime, proactive planning is key.

 

Contact First State Home Loans today for a free, no-obligation home loan review. Whether you’re in the Sutherland Shire, Liverpool, or anywhere in between, our local team is here to help you make confident decisions in the current market.

 

Best regards,
The Team at First State Home Loans